by HeyJoe
azuredarkness wrote:
I think someone here calculated that the chances of a US hold of Destal & Decol in turn 2 thanks to the China card are something in the vicinity of 2-4%. While this is indeed something you prefer to avoid, these odds do not justify doing it "Above all else" or not doing it "No matter how much of a good idea it looks like".
Absolutes are bad for strategic thinking.
I disagree. There are plenty of other good USSR cards for the US to want to hold into Turn3 to space. (DeGaulle, Suez, Socialist Governments, etc.) In the Early War, there are three defcon suicide cards: Duck and Cover, CIA Created, and Five Year Plan if combined with one other. Two of these can be used on the Space Race, even under Red Scare/Purge, and the early game itself can neutralize their effects. (You might have no influence in mid-war regions and so CIA is not defcon suicide, or you can trigger either of them while the defcon is still high.) This means the play of China Card to hold a second card to avoid defcon suicide is unnecessary. Then the only use of the China Card comes from the ops it can play.
The most vulnerable section of Asia at the beginning is India-Pakistan because of the Indo-Pakistani War card. This means the most effective use of the China card is the use it to take some combination of Afghanistan-Pakistan-India-Burma all at once. But to do this you must have influence in countries adjacent to them to set it up. This takes time, and it might especially be impossible if the defcon does not drop below 4 quickly, or if the focus of Turn1 shifts to Europe or the MidEast.
So, then what other use of the China Card could there be that would merit playing it on Turn1? Using it on the opening coup of Iran if the USSR is really unlucky and isn't dealt a card over 2-ops? This sends a red flag to the US player: "I have no good cards in my hand." Even if the Iran coup succeeds and the US doesn't coup it back, the US might sense weakness and force influence through Jordan/Iraq/Iran, or Thailand, or something else. It leaves the US too many strategic opportunities.
Yes, it is good not to have absolutes for strategic thinking, but playing the China Card on Turn1 I think is equivalent to moving your Queen out too quickly in chess. There are situations you might want to do it, and experienced players playing against beginners can probably get away with it, but generally speaking it's better to hold that power in reserve.